As cities end coronavirus lockdowns, public-transit authorities will need ways to increase ridership—safely. Early attempts in some European cities can offer lessons to those elsewhere in Europe.
This article was a collaborative, global effort by David Chinn, Carsten Lotz, Luuk Speksnijder, and Sebastian Stern, with Raphaelle Chapuis, Ruby Holmes, Arthur Knol, Karim Tadjeddine, and Koen Wolfs, representing views from the Public & Social Sector and Travel, Logistics & Infrastructure Practices.
The past several weeks have seen European cities such as London, Munich, and Paris relax lockdown measures intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus. With those adjustments has come a challenge: enabling people to get around. For many who live, work, and attend school in cities, getting around means taking a bus or train—and often riding shoulder to shoulder with fellow passengers. So how can all those people cross town using public transit while keeping a safe distance from one another?
The short answer is that they can only do so in much smaller numbers than before. Maintaining physical distancing will reduce the capacity of public-transport systems to between 15 and 35 percent of prepandemic levels. Metro systems, built for high passenger density, may see the steepest reductions. Transport for London, the government body responsible for the public-transportation system in Greater London, estimates that with 2.0 meters (approximately 6.5 feet) of physical distancing, the London Underground, or Tube, will be able to carry 13 to 15 percent of the passengers that it normally does, even at full service. McKinsey analysis of regional rail lines in the Netherlands suggests that the capacity of those lines could be cut to 20 to 25 percent because of physical-distancing rules requiring 1.5 meters (approximately five feet) of separation between people.
Because of lockdowns, these limitations have not presented much of a problem. Stay-at-home orders and workplace closures have lowered public-transit ridership to 10 to 15 percent of the usual level, according to McKinsey analysis of multiple European countries. But as lockdowns ease and businesses reopen, more people will want or need to move about. In the short term, transit authorities must somehow enable ridership increases, which will support an economic recovery, and also maintain public-health measures that will help stifle a recurrence of the virus. In the medium term, transit operators must restore riders’ confidence in public transport. And they must figure out a way to deal with the financial losses that the decline in ridership—which is likely to persist for several years—will cause (a topic we will revisit in a forthcoming article).
In this article, we look at three methods that some cities are already using to solve the short-term challenge of accommodating more transit passengers: limiting riders to enable physical distancing, staggering ridership throughout during the day and across the transit system, and instituting rules and changes that safely increase system capacity. These measures will also be instrumental in bolstering travelers’ confidence, given that a medium-term modal shift toward the use of private cars would increase congestion and make it more difficult to reach environmental targets.
Limit ridership to enable physical distancing
Under normal circumstances, most public-transit trips are taken by office workers, university students, and people headed to or from recreational activities (Exhibit 1). Encouraging these kinds of passengers to stay at home or to use other modes of transportation can free capacity for people who most need to take public transit, such as those who hold jobs where they must be on site (for example, healthcare professionals, first responders, grocery-store staff, and other essential workers) or who have a housing situation that is not conducive to working from home, or are lower-income workers who cannot afford more expensive transportation alternatives such as taxis or private cars. In the Netherlands, for instance, 25 percent of people with low incomes rely on public transportation to get around, while just 11 percent of people with high incomes do so.1
McKinsey analysis of ridership in one European country illustrates this challenge. During lockdown, ridership dropped to about 10 to 15 percent of prepandemic levels. The few riders who remained mostly worked in essential sectors that required workers to come to a workplace, such as healthcare, law enforcement, and the food supply chain. As sectors reopened and more people needed to move from place to place, demand for public transport started to grow. Yet the percentage of train occupancy that allows passengers to practice strict physical distancing is just 20 to 25 percent. That leaves little room for passengers other than the essential workers who must travel to their jobs.
To prevent crowding, governments may want to consider continuing to advise against all nonessential trips. They can also collaborate with employers on continuing to allow people to work from home (people with office jobs account for more than 20 percent of passenger kilometers). And they can work to minimize on-campus activities for students (who account for another 20 percent of passenger kilometers). Government agencies might also collaborate on making it easier for people to walk and bicycle to their destinations, instead of using public transport. Cities such as Bogotá, London, Mexico City, Paris, and New York have all announced or taken action to expand cycling routes.
Merely discouraging or restricting nonessential trips, however, won’t always leave enough capacity for essential trips, because those trips don’t hold steady at 10 to 15 percent of capacity throughout the day. To accommodate all essential trips, further measures are necessary.
Stagger ridership throughout the day and across the transit system
Demand for public transportation spikes during the morning and evening rush hours. Compared with midday, the morning rush hour can see transit occupancy increase fivefold, with the busiest lines running well above full capacity and standing passengers crammed into buses and train cars (Exhibit 2). Shifting demand away from peak times will not only enable physical distancing but also make riding public transit more pleasant.
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